Logistics Market Update: August 2026
July was tough, and August isn't starting any easier. The pressures flagged last month are hitting faster than expected, with severe weather now compounding existing global freight challenges. Here's a clear snapshot of what's happening, and what it means for New Zealand manufacturers and importers.
Ocean Freight: Capacity Under Pressure
Consecutive typhoons have significantly disrupted vessel loadings across China over the past month, with rolling terminal closures across Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, Yantian, Shekou, and Guangzhou since mid-July. The knock-on effects are being felt across the board:
- Severe booking backlogs: Space from China for the remainder of August and into early September is already fully allocated.
- Capacity crunch: Ships from China to New Zealand are booked 6-8 weeks in advance, as carriers prioritise higher-paying routes such as China-US and China-South America.
- Rising rates: Ocean spot rates have hit an 18-month high, up around 40% year-on-year and 45% above pre-conflict levels. Second-half August rate increases to NZ include:
- COSCO / ANL / OOCL: up USD 250 (20FT) / USD 500 (40FT)
- Maersk / ONE: up USD 200 (20FT) / USD 400 (40FT)
- Global congestion: Nearly 11% of the global containership fleet is currently stuck at anchorage, concentrated around Singapore, Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Nhava Sheva.
- Longer delays: While global schedule reliability hit a year-to-date peak of 64.7% in May, late vessels are now facing average delays of over 5.5 days.
- Ongoing geopolitical detours: The Strait of Hormuz remains a significant risk factor, and Red Sea transits remain depressed, with carriers continuing to route around the Cape of Good Hope, adding fuel surcharges and war-risk premiums.
- Equipment shortages: Container availability, particularly refrigerated units, remains tight and is increasingly affecting Kiwi exporters.
It's not all bad news, blank sailing cancellations across major East-West trades have dropped to a low 3% for the next five weeks, offering a rare bit of stability.
Air Freight: Squeezed on Multiple Fronts
- Winter capacity cuts: The suspension of American Airlines' winter services to New Zealand has significantly reduced booking space and transshipment capacity into Europe, with multiple airlines now fully booked 7-10 days out.
- Hub congestion: High-yield tech cargo (AI infrastructure, semiconductors) and ocean-to-air spillover continue to clog major Asian and Gulf hubs, driving up rates and extending transit times.
- Price-sensitive sectors under strain: Perishables and pharmaceuticals are feeling the pressure most, as IATA projects a broader global shift toward price-led revenue growth.
- Express options available: "Must-fly" priority rates can help bypass backlogs, though they come at a significant premium.
Domestic Freight: A Gap in the Market
Swires' exit from the New Zealand domestic market has left the country without a dedicated sea freight option between the North and South Islands, as most foreign vessels don't service this route. This adds further pressure to an already strained Cook Strait ferry crossing and is expected to push road and rail freight prices higher in the coming weeks.
A Reminder: BMSB Season Starts 1 September
For importers bringing in cargo from Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) risk countries, the 2026/27 season runs from 1 September to 30 April 2027. Key requirements include:
- LCL containers from Japan, USA, Canada, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Spain must be either low-risk (e.g. food) or accompanied by a manufacturer's declaration confirming high-risk goods were produced and stored indoors prior to export.
- Italy carries the highest infestation risk and requires all LCL containers to undergo heat treatment (60°C) before loading.
- Cargo transhipped via Singapore or Hong Kong that originates from BMSB-risk countries will be stopped for treatment at the transshipment port.
- FCL shipments from a wide range of additional countries (see full list on request) must also comply, with non-indoor-stored or non-new goods requiring fumigation or heat treatment.
- Open-top containers and flat racks are considered especially high risk, requiring mandatory pre-loading treatment, with only a 5-day window between treatment and vessel loading, so early planning is essential.
What This Means for Your Business
With capacity tight, rates rising, and disruptions compounding across ocean, air, and domestic freight, forward planning has never been more important. GDF NZ is actively working to secure the most cost-efficient and reliable solutions for clients' cargo, and will provide updates as soon as shipment-specific information becomes available.
If you import from BMSB-risk countries, or have upcoming shipments that may be affected by any of the above, get in touch with your account representative as early as possible to help secure space and equipment ahead of the busy season.
Information provided by GDF NZ
