Ocean Freight Pressures
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Rate Stability via Blank Sailings: China–New Zealand freight rates have held flat for November. Rather than market softening, this stability is artificial. Carriers are aggressively deploying tactical blank (cancelled) sailings from Week 43 (19th October) through Week 48 (23rd November) to artificially support prices and prevent rates from dropping. Expect a severe space crunch over the next two to three weeks.
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Post-Golden Week "Clearing Wave": The massive backlog of holiday cargo from China is clearing in waves. Shipments that missed their pre-holiday departure are facing major vessel rollovers, with delays now stretching up to three weeks.
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Strategic Rerouting Chaos: In a bizarre bid to bypass massive delays at congested hubs like Singapore and Port Klang, some lines are changing vessel schedules mid-voyage. Ships are being rerouted through Taiwan, then down to Vietnam and Singapore before heading to New Zealand. This is adding unexpected layers of transit volatility.
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The Pre-Christmas & Lunar New Year Convergence: As we push deeper into November, the standard pre-Christmas booking pressure will mount. We do not anticipate any relief in space or rates because the Lunar New Year rush is right behind it. With Lunar New Year falling on 17th February 2027, Chinese factories will run on skeleton staff early, with workers departing around 15th January and not returning until roughly 22nd February.
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Global Canal Constraints: The maritime market is facing a literal "pincer movement." While there is a sliver of good news with Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and MSC selectively trialling the Suez Canal again (though sustainability remains highly uncertain), the Panama Canal has simultaneously slashed daily vessel transits from 35 down to 27 due to ongoing freshwater shortages.
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Capacity Drifts & Equipment Deficits: Global Ocean lines continue to reallocate vessel capacity to higher-yielding trades. Coupled with the prolonged Red Sea crisis, this ongoing shift keeps the supply of empty container equipment across Chinese hubs critically tight.
Recommended Action: Book space early. We are currently booking at least 4 weeks in advance, and even then, cargo is occasionally being rolled to the next vessel. Involving the GDF Team the moment you place orders with your suppliers allows us to secure space using our trade lane allocations.
Air Freight Outlook
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Capacity Relief on the Horizon: While air freight demand is steadily climbing for the Christmas peak, there is light at the end of the tunnel. American Airlines is set to resume its New Zealand services in November. This seasonal return will inject much-needed capacity for both imports and exports, hopefully alleviating recent bottlenecks at European gateways and primary transshipment hubs.
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Improving Lead Times: We are already seeing positive movement in booking windows. Airline backlogs have eased slightly, with bookings turning around in 3–4 days compared to the heavy 7–10 day delays experienced last month.
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Transit Hub Bottlenecks: Despite better booking speeds, major Asian and Gulf transshipment hubs are still battling persistent terminal congestion. This is keeping transit times extended and maintaining upward pressure on spot rates.
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Priority Cargo: If you have time-critical shipments, express "must-fly" premium services remain available to bypass these hub backlogs entirely.
Information provided by GDF NZ
